Watching old science-fiction films -like Back to the Future- it’s interesting to see how they imagined us. In everyday life, how often have we found ourselves having to try and predict future scenarios? And how good do we think we are at doing so?

Unfortunately, not very... Why is this?

We are predisposed to make mistakes...

There are several traps that our brain sets for us... being aware of them can be a good first step to getting around them!

Neuroscience has confirmed that the neural structures involved in remembering are the same ones we use to make predictions.

1. We imagine the future using memories of the past. When we think about what could happen tomorrow, we do this by thinking about what happened today, yesterday, etc. The point is, in doing so, what comes to mind is nothing more than a projection of the past, which is also unreliable (read also MEMORY FALLACY: when we base our decisions on distorted memories)
   
   But when future events have nothing to do with those that we’ve experienced, or are very far away in time?
   
   We do exactly the same thing, although we have significantly less information available to us (read also: The availability of information in times of uncertainty)
   
   
2. We are convinced that things that happened in past could have been easily predicted (especially the event was negative). Looking at the causes retrospectively, we tend to identify the premonitory clues much easier, ignoring the fact that these were hidden amongst a huge amount of other data (hindsight bias)
   
   
3. We tend to overestimate risks that are immediate and easy to remember (even if improbable), and to underestimate risks that are more complex, far away in time, gradual but highly probable (availability bias)
   
   
4. When we have a lot of experience or competence in a certain subject, we tend to be overconfident in ourselves and to be less accurate in making judgements and predictions (overconfidence bias)
   
   
5. In general, we tend to be too optimistic in thinking that the things that we want to happen will actually happen (optimism bias)
   
   But we do this even now in the time of the Coronavirus?
   
   In short, yes. Even in crises and emergency situations, our mind succeeds in imagining a difficult future for the community, but not for ourselves as individuals.

We aren’t very good with data...

Unlike computers, we aren’t very good at extracting substance from data... we don’t even pay attention properly.

"Humans are very bad at understanding statistical trends and long-term changes" Seyle

Instead, we prefer to put our trust in what we already know/think we know (read also NAÏVE REALISM: is our perception of reality objective?)

Why

Because it’s much faster, simpler, and cheaper for our brain (read also: Decision making in situations of uncertainty)

 "Being aware of our biases and prejudices won’t help us to suddenly be able to put them aside" Weinschenk

Knowing that we have objective limits must push us to make better use of technology and to be more open-minded towards new and different things/information/people... only in this way will be able to have a better vision of what the future might hold, perhaps.